Learn the Six Scenario Planning Steps
Begin a scenario planning group to meet at least once a year. The group should be made up of others who will challenge your assumptions and thinking. Use Schwartz's process to prepare your business in times of rapid change.
Step 1: Find the Right Issue: Begin the process with a specific decision or issue around your business. For example, how will technological change impact the insurance business? or What if the U.S. dollar drops and does not recover for four years?
Step 2: Locate the Driving Forces: Discuss what forces will shape the issue. Forces can come from four areas: technology, politics, society, and economics. For small business, take a close look at local conditions.
Step 3: Rate the Forces: Some forces will have a greater impact on your issue. A weak American dollar will be impacted more by economic and political forces than technology.
Step 4: Create Scenarios: Once you have an understanding of the issues and forces develop several worst and best case scenarios.
Step 5: Discuss Implications: Present your scenarios to the group and have an open discussion on what could happen. Look at what these scenes can mean to your company.
Step 6: Develop Indicators: This is the step where the scenario planning meets reality. Look for which key indicators have to take place for this scene to become true.
By incorporating scenario planning into your business, you have the opportunity to be ready for change. Your decision-making skills will become sharper. And more importantly, you will manage the risks of operating a business in this topsy-turvy world.
